likely llc

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  • Moneyball with your Life: Down and Out in Detroit and Mexico City

    The pandemic started. China paid me a good salary, but I left China, since it was getting locked down. I sat in Bangkok, Thailand, watching the death toll go up, while practicing writing Stan models. I had a few hundred dollars from my stipend. I had to make a move. I flew back to Detroit.…

    likelyandre

    December 19, 2025
    Uncategorized
    applied-statsitics, baseball, bayesian-modeling, consulting, gaussian-processes, money, sports-analytics, stan
  • Staring at Trace Plots

    I remember sitting in her office, with Eunjee Lee, PhD. We’re looking at a trace plot, this is a Metropolis-Hastings embedded in a Gibbs sampler, and there were multiple. We call it a “Metropolis-within-Gibbs.” So we’re looking at a trace plot. And she says zoom in, zoom in. So I zoom in. And she pauses,…

    likelyandre

    December 15, 2025
    Uncategorized
  • Connecting to the Blogograph (a continuation of the blogosphere series) to Korea, and getting fired, again.

    So I’ve decided we’re renaming the “blogosphere” to the “blogograph,” since this is more accurate. Out of undergrad I met Daniel Kessler, PhD, (https://www.dankessler.me/) yes, at Michigan at Skeeps over a beer. Love this guy, he’s a great technician and I adopted his computational workflow. After talking he invited me to work with the University…

    likelyandre

    December 11, 2025
    Uncategorized
    fMRI, gettingfired, graphtheory, korea, MCMC, science, statistics
  • Connecting to the Blogosphere part 2

    (As I’m writing this I’m realizing the webcrawler probably starts from Gelman’s blog and parses the comments, so I need to comment more, I’m doing this backwards. Moreover, it’s technically a blog-o-graph, but that’s not as funny as blogosphere, so whatever). So one resource, that’s helpfun when getting started with Stan: https://mc-stan.org/ Is Michael Betancourt…

    likelyandre

    December 10, 2025
    Uncategorized
  • more litter from my trail of tears

    Feel free to correct me or reply if there’s any obvious mistake I’m making. I might be telling on myself here. So during my masters, I was assigned an adviser who then assigned me a project. This was a research based masters with graduate level mathematics course requirements and a minimum 70 page thesis, in…

    likelyandre

    December 7, 2025
    Uncategorized
    ai, ann, artificial-intelligence, math, optimization, philosophy, technology, tensorflow, theory
  • Connecting to the Blogosphere

    So this one’s an experiment. I haven’t gone through this code, but I’m wondering if I throw some links of the source up here, I’ll get more hits, and thus increase the chances I can expand my business. I’ve long been a follower of Professor Andrew Gelman’s blog, but more his text books, research articles…

    likelyandre

    December 5, 2025
    Uncategorized
    blog, blogging, open-source-software, oss, software, statistics, technology, writing
  • It’s been a while…

    It’s been a while since I’ve posted here, mostly since I’ve been working for The SAS Institute Inc, as a software developer in the scientific computing department. We worked closely with the econometrics and time series engineering team. I want to say thank you, I couldn’t have asked for a better position after finishing my…

    likelyandre

    November 17, 2025
    Uncategorized
  • Imitation: Radar Waveform Design in a Spectrally Crowded Environment via Nonconvex Quadratic Optimization

    On a whim, I chose to study Information and Communication Engineering, closest related keyword, Signal Processing, and Sister major, Electrical Engineering. I was paired with Cui GuoLong and his post-doc Xiang Xianyu. In order to learn more about radar filter design, I thought it would be a great idea to imitate one of his papers.…

    likelyandre

    February 22, 2024
    Uncategorized
  • Code for the Logo

    Prior to starting at SAS, I was still consulting and working for Michigan. I wanted to make a logo for Likely LLC, to make it appear more credible. Models are meaningless without good advertising and visualizations, to non-statisticians. I was attempting to make an L with mathematics and machine learning/statistics. So I simulated a Paul…

    likelyandre

    February 2, 2024
    Uncategorized
    art, machine-learning, math, python, R, stan
  • Gaussian Process Model Dump, Aalto University Internship, Summer 2018 Part 2

    This is a collection of models that I frequent if I’m doing any modeling with Gaussian processes. Contains logistic regression models with Gaussian process priors, spatial models, survival models, regression models with separate length scales, etc. There’s been some changes to the language, so you need to replace the name of the covariance functions to…

    likelyandre

    July 14, 2023
    Uncategorized
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