likely llc

quantitative consulting

selected appointments

Software Developer (previous) – The SAS Institute Inc, Scientific Computing

Statistician (previous) – University of Michigan, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine


selected clients

The Detroit Justice Center – Survey data analysis.

The Tampa Bay Rays – Bayesian statistical models to forecast player performance.

The University of Michigan Department of Cardiovascular Medicine – Analysis of omics data, other biomedical data analysis, clinical data.

about

Andre Zapico – Andre is currently an independent consultant. He completed his masters of science at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China in Information and Communication Engineering in 2021 with a plurality of graduate level mathematics courses. His masters thesis was entitled “Constant Modulus Radar Waveform Design with Good Correlation Properties via an Artificial Neural Network,” supervised by Cui Guolong. His undergraduate dual degree is in mathematical sciences and statistics from the University of Michigan Ann Arbor in 2017, after he transferred from Michigan State University. He was previously an official member of the Stan development team, due to contributions to the Gaussian process library, a subset of the stan/math library, the math backend to the probabilistic programming language Stan. He focuses on maths, programming and applied statistics for research or industry. For more details on positions held, coursework, awards, or programming examples, see his linkedin or github. For more testimonials, or a selection of previous contracts, see his Upwork: Andre Zapico’s Upwork.

testimonials

“Exceedingly skilled with statistics, and is not a plug-and-play collaborator. If you have no idea how to structure your modeling strategy in order to perform analysis, Andre can help with model design that is appropriate. If you think you already know how to structure your modeling strategy and just want help with the coding, execution, and interpretation, Andre can do that quickly and efficiently. But he will still think about the goal of the analysis, catch any miss-specifications, and likely make insightful suggestions on how to improve the design .” – an Upwork client

awards

Chinese Government Scholarship – China Scholarship Council

Aalto Science Institute – Aalto University Department of Computer Science

Big Data Summer Institute – University of Michigan School of Public Health

blog

(all blog posts)

Confession – Formality

I admit, that recently, my writing on here has been more or less informal, and I’ll be going through and hiding posts that are non-technical, or not directed at professionals, and I’ll also be editing existing posts to emphasize my technical writing ability and technical expertise in statistics and quantitative computing. Thank you for understanding,…

more unfinished work… SCSES

This method could be used in the case where we have two design matrices, and we’d like to see association of groups of both design matrices covariates (groups) with an outcome of interested (whatever, likelihood of purchasing an elephant). For some reason group lasso wasn’t working, either issues with software or some issue with the…

Gitting Started

If you’re a developer and you’re not using git for version control, you’re wrong. Moreover, git can, and should be used when developing statistical or machine learning models, for example if developing a “customized” Bayesian model in Stan or developing your own neural network architecture in TF/PyTorch, the latter I’m not as familiar with. Incrementalism.…

Me vs. Claude

So I asked Claude this question: And it generated this response: And when I was adding these covariance functions, this is what I was using to test out what I had implemented in C++, to the Stan math library: From a quick look over, it doesn’t look totally correct. But see for yourself. I’m not…

Vaginas, Fat Women and Options

This was probably the most hilarious group I worked with. On day one, I got a badge, that had a uterus on it. I was trying to be politically correct, but the coordinator kept pushing it. I was following her through the hospital, and she said, you walk up the stairs first, so you’re not…

the world is a business.

“… there are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no west. There is only one wholistic system of systems. One vast, and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational, dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars … There is no America, there is no…

Moneyball with your Life: Down and Out in Detroit and Mexico City

The pandemic started. China paid me a good salary, but I left China, since it was getting locked down. I sat in Bangkok, Thailand, watching the death toll go up, while practicing writing Stan models. I had a few hundred dollars from my stipend. I had to make a move. I flew back to Detroit.…

Staring at Trace Plots

I remember sitting in her office, with Eunjee Lee, PhD. We’re looking at a trace plot, this is a Metropolis-Hastings embedded in a Gibbs sampler, and there were multiple. We call it a “Metropolis-within-Gibbs.” So we’re looking at a trace plot. And she says zoom in, zoom in. So I zoom in. And she pauses,…

Connecting to the Blogograph (a continuation of the blogosphere series) to Korea, and getting fired, again.

So I’ve decided we’re renaming the “blogosphere” to the “blogograph,” since this is more accurate. Out of undergrad I met Daniel Kessler, PhD, (https://www.dankessler.me/) yes, at Michigan at Skeeps over a beer. Love this guy, he’s a great technician and I adopted his computational workflow. After talking he invited me to work with the University…

Connecting to the Blogosphere part 2

(As I’m writing this I’m realizing the webcrawler probably starts from Gelman’s blog and parses the comments, so I need to comment more, I’m doing this backwards. Moreover, it’s technically a blog-o-graph, but that’s not as funny as blogosphere, so whatever). So one resource, that’s helpfun when getting started with Stan: https://mc-stan.org/ Is Michael Betancourt…

more litter from my trail of tears

Feel free to correct me or reply if there’s any obvious mistake I’m making. I might be telling on myself here. So during my masters, I was assigned an adviser who then assigned me a project. This was a research based masters with graduate level mathematics course requirements and a minimum 70 page thesis, in…

Connecting to the Blogosphere

So this one’s an experiment. I haven’t gone through this code, but I’m wondering if I throw some links of the source up here, I’ll get more hits, and thus increase the chances I can expand my business. I’ve long been a follower of Professor Andrew Gelman’s blog, but more his text books, research articles…

It’s been a while…

It’s been a while since I’ve posted here, mostly since I’ve been working for The SAS Institute Inc, as a software developer in the scientific computing department. We worked closely with the econometrics and time series engineering team. I want to say thank you, I couldn’t have asked for a better position after finishing my…

Code for the Logo

Prior to starting at SAS, I was still consulting and working for Michigan. I wanted to make a logo for Likely LLC, to make it appear more credible. Models are meaningless without good advertising and visualizations, to non-statisticians. I was attempting to make an L with mathematics and machine learning/statistics. So I simulated a Paul…

Gaussian Process Model Dump, Aalto University Internship, Summer 2018 Part 2

This is a collection of models that I frequent if I’m doing any modeling with Gaussian processes. Contains logistic regression models with Gaussian process priors, spatial models, survival models, regression models with separate length scales, etc. There’s been some changes to the language, so you need to replace the name of the covariance functions to…

Models, Algorithms and Software for Statistical Inference

I’m often asked by recruiters, clients, academics or colleagues which models I’ve worked with. This post is an effort to put this all in one place. All of these models, algorithms, and software I’ve worked with in some capacity. This includes implementation, development, application, required understanding, or any combination thereof. This list in non-exhaustive. I’ll…

So What Actually Happened in Finland? Aalto University Internship Summer 2018, Part 1

After working in the psychiatry department at Michigan, I worked at Aalto University in Espoo, Finland next summer. There, I worked on the Stan math library implementing Gaussian process covariance functions and matrix utilities to make Gaussian process models more feasible in Stan. The ultimate goal was to implement what’s known as “the birthday problem”…

Clustering Using SVD on Omics Data

For Michigan, I’ve since applied the SVD based sorting algorithm, which can be used for clustering, to real data. The goal is to in some way model the relationship of proteins and metabolites, come up with modules, or groups of proteins and metabolites that were related, and then use these later in a regression model…

Additive Gaussian Process Time Series Regression in Stan

I’ve copied this over from discourse.mc-stan.org, but this was my post, so I’m comfortable doing so. While working in the psychiatry department at Michigan, I played around with EEG data. Next, I became curious about how to extract out different periodic components of a time series. I ended up finding a blog post on Andrew…

My Work at the University of Michigan Psychiatry Department in 2017, Part 1

After I finished my undergraduate degree at the University of Michigan in 2017, in the Mathematical Sciences, and Statistics, I worked in the University of Michigan Psychiatry Department. This was with Daniel Kessler, Dr. Eunjee Lee, Dr. Chandra Sripada, and Mike Angstadt. This was in 2017, so thank you for understanding if vocab isn’t up…

Clustering Using SVD

Dr. Murthy and I have been working on a way to interpret omics data. We’d like to see if there’s any natural grouping structure to a large dataset. We’ve computed something resembling a cross covariance matrix. After Dr. Murthy experimented with sparse CCA for a while, we tried some other clustering methods or regularization methods…

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